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Cyfrowy Polsat to pack a powerful punch, espected to post PLN 181.6 mln net profit in Q1

TAG'S: CYFRPLSAT, Media

Listed telco & media group Cyfrowy Polsat is expected to post PLN 181.6 mln net profit in Q1 2017, according to consensus figures from sell-side analysts.

Cyfrowy Polsat will publish its Q1 report on May 11.

 
 

--------------- CONSENSUS EXPECTATIONS

 
Full size
Q1 2017 cons. range Q1 2016 change y/y Q4 2016 change q/q
             
Revenues 2339,6 2297 - 2390 2364 -1,0% 2535 -7,7%
EBITDA 876,7 839,9 - 909 895,6 -2,1% 902 -2,8%
EBIT 385,1 355,7 - 409 422,8 -8,9% 390 -1,3%
Net profit 181,6 140,6 - 251 175,5 3,0% 350 -48,1%
             
EBITDA margin 37,5% 36,6%-39,0% 37,90% -0,41 35,6% 1,89
EBIT margin 16,5% 15,1%-17,5% 17,90% -1,42 15,4% 1,08
net margin 7,8% 6,1%-10,8% 7,40% 0,34 13,8% -6,05
 
 

Cyfrowy Polsat also said it will book a PLN 59 mln reserve in Q1 for the premium it will pay investors for early redemption of bonds, the company said in a market filing on April 12.

 

The consensus is based on forecasts from nine brokerages.

 

--------------- PRIOR PERIOD REVIEW

 

Cyfrowy Polsat delivered PLN 349.9 mln in Q4 2016 attributable net profits, much above PLN 226.7 mln consensus call, as the net profit took a PLN 104 mln boost from a deferred tax asset.

 

Group EBITDA rose by 2.4% y/y to PLN 902.3 mln, putting EBITDA margin to 35.6%, up by 1.8 ppt.

 

Cumulative cash flows for the past 12M were up to PLN 1.557 bln, above management 2016 target for PLN 1.2-1.4 bln. Capex in Q4 reached PLN 191.4 mln, putting FY figure at PLN 580.9 mln.

 

Revenues were down by 2.9% y/y to PLN 2.54 bln but up by 1.0% when adjusted for the Q1'2016 Midas consolidation, which eliminated a host of revenues and costs between the two sister companies.

 

CYFROWY POLSAT Q4 EARNINGS VS. CONSENSUS

 
Full size
  Q4 2016 Consensus Q4 q/q Q4 y/y vs Cons.
  PLN mln PLN mln % % %
TOTAL REVENUES 2 535,1 2 519,1 6,2 -2,9 0,6
Operating Profit 389,9 379,9 -13,2 -12,3 2,6
EBITDA 902,3 880,3 -5,7 2,4 2,5
Net profit for the period 349,9 226,7 25,8 88,5 54,3
 

Retail revenues were down by 2% y/y as decrease of revenues from voice services was partly compensated by higher revenues from pay TV and internet services.

 

Opex was down by 0.9% y/y, including 3.4% decline in costs of equipment sold and 0.6% decline in content cost.

 

Cyfrowy Polsat enjoyed a 2.7% y/y increase of Q4 ARPU to PLN 90.7 on what the management called a highly competitive market. Total revenue generating units were up by 0.3% y/y at end-2016 to 16.52 mln with pay TV RGUs up by 5.8%, internet up by 10.2% and post-paid mobile telephony up by 3.3%. On the flip side, total RGUs in pre-paid telephony dropped by 17.2% in the period, in the wake of the obligation to register SIM cards. RGU per client rose by 5.6% to 2.25.

 

In the broadcasting and TV production segment, revenues rose by 7% to PLN 414 mln in Q4. Ad revenues were up by 7.1% to PLN 336 mln. Segment EBITDA grew by 23% to PLN 154 mln. EBITDA margin rose by 4.8 pps to 37.1%.

 

Polsat enjoyed a marginal increase in viewership in the commercial group to 25.1% in Q4 from 24.8% in the prior year period, while its share in advertizing and sponsoring market rose to 27.2%.

 

The group ended 2016 with a net debt of PLN 11.14 bln, which put 12M trailing EBITDA down to 3.06x or 2.83x according to SFA, i.e. excluding non-cash serviced debt.

 
 

2017-05-10



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